Chances of scoring a run from 3rd base on an infield ground ball with less than 2 outs.
Giannis asked: I know that the decision of scoring from 3rd base on an infield ground ball depends on many factors (where the ball goes,what the infielder decides to do, throwing the runner at home plate out or the runner at first base, if the 3rd base runner decides to score or not, error etc.).
But watching this particular play hundreds of times I wonder what's the success rate in any case.I say 30-40%.
What do you think?
Giannis, thank you for your question.
As a ballpark figure, I would put it somewhere under 50%.
This situation is one of those, in the game, that gets saved for an emergency situation, where the offense becomes willing to try and beat the odds, due to the game situation at the time.
You never want to just run into an out, so you pick and choose when you take that risk.
Always exciting to watch!
Yours in baseball,
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